Dear Friends of GDA,
Last week Thursday, Wesley and I were working together on finalising a newsletter that he had prepared on ‘Change is in the Air’ and the uncertainty that elections bring and ultimately how they do or don’t affect investment returns – I think you will find it helpful.
Little did we know, however, that our GDA world would be rocked through another ‘change’ and that was the untimely and deeply sad loss of our colleague and friend Desiree Manuel (fondly known to so many as Dee) who passed away in her sleep in the early hours of Saturday morning. Dee assisted GDA as an office manager, personal assistant, organiser and part time culinary expert. She managed to bridge the gap between back office and front office with her larger-than-life personality and laugh. I am sure that if you have phoned or visited our office, you would have experienced this first hand.
On Friday afternoon, as a team, we shared another one of her wonderful meals in our boardroom and enjoyed, as this has been our custom for the last few years, a time of sharing our personal lives and stories. Dee was excited about the arrival of her second grandchild (nicknamed ‘Noonoopudding’) in the next few weeks to her daughter Aasiyah, son in law Faldien and little sister to Iyad (5), who was a regular visitor to GDA. She also shared stories of her fishing trips off Cape Point (one of her greatest loves) with her husband Jamaal whom she married last year August. Jamaal was also a regular in office as he fixed, painted and repaired our spaces – something us finance people aren’t good at!
As a team we will miss her thoroughly and commit to continue to journey with her family and the excitement of new life amid their grief.
Thankfully in the beginning of April we had welcomed a new member of staff, Denelle Williams, who had arrived to assist Debbie in our Foreign Exchange division. Denelle has a wealth of experience in office management and administration. She is a wonderfully calming influence in our space and we are grateful that she is around – especially at this trying time.
As we head into times of elections and ‘change’ I leave you in the wisdom of Wesley and some of our views.
Election update
It’s the biggest election year in global history, with an extraordinary four billion people – around half of the world’s population – set to vote across the course of 2024. Globally, more voters than ever in history will vote with at least 64 countries (plus the European Union) having elections. In an unsettled global landscape with major wars raging, shifting superpowers, AI and social media more powerful than ever, what does the year of elections hold, particularly for us as South Africans?
JP Landman is an independent political analyst with quite an insightful and succinct view on how the political landscape is shaping up here at home, and we have summarised his key thoughts below, as well as attaching his full article is you wish to read it.
https://gda.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Viewpoint-by-JP-Landman-Election-update-1.pdf
- 51 parties are contesting the elections, up 3 parties since 2019
- The new MK Party, of which Jacob Zuma is the face, looks set to weaken the ANC and EFF and potentially gain a fair share of votes, with its strongest support in Natal
- We will get 3 ballot papers this year in May, as opposed to the normal 2, with the additional ballot including independent candidates.
- JP also describes the process of electing the president should no party get an outright 50% majority.
- JP’s view is that the most likely scenario is that of an ANC/DA coalition
Here are some selected insights into key areas of other elections happening this year:
- In Taiwan, who becomes the next president will fundamentally shape Beijing’s approach to the self-governed island it has repeatedly threatened with invasion.
- In Pakistan, the country’s most popular politician, former Prime Minister Imran Khan, sat in jail, while his party had been suppressed and his supporters arrested in the run-up to February’s election.
- Elections with all-but-certain outcomes can still be worth watching. Vladimir Putin was unsurprisingly re-elected in a 5th annual campaign with 88% of the vote, but it is difficult to ascertain whether the Russian public continues to back his seemingly endless war.
- In Ukraine, it’s unclear if a planned 2024 presidential vote will take place while the besieged nation is currently under martial law, though incumbent leader Volodomyr Zelensky has said he intends to seek another term and his ratings remain high.
- Elsewhere, key political successions are also already brewing. With a bleak economic outlook casting a shadow over the U.K.’s ruling Conservative Party, which has been in power for nearly 14 years, opinion polls suggest the opposition Labour Party will likely come out on top in Britain’s next general election, which embattled Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has promised to call at some point in 2024.
The results of the South African election have the potential to influence our investment returns earned over the future, especially in the short term. Come November when the US election is in the spotlight, we can expect similar “noise” in the value of our investments, which may be in for a bumpy ride.
This said, what we have learned is that often the noise generated by elections, media and large events becomes superfluous through the lens of long-term investing. Take a look at the below snapshot from M&G highlighting investment values on the JSE through global and local periods of turbulence from 1950 to today, which confirms that our current view of the world pales in significance to the long-term power of compounding growth assets.
https://gda.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/History-of-the-JSE.png
As always, GDA is there to guide you, helping you discern what is relevant and important and allowing you to act in your ability to make financial decisions in the most appropriate way.